Bayes Theorem In statistics there are many situations where you want to determine the probability that a sample for which you have certain measurement belongs to a certain set. Say you want to know the chance that you have HIV if you test positive. No test is perfect, so this probability will depend on the test sensitivity, but also on the specificity and on the incidence in the population, or set, that you belong to. Bayes Theorem is a simply the logic you have to apply to estimate such probabilities. As a cancer researcher my attention was naturally drawn to this paper currently trending on Pubmed: Detection and localization of surgically resectable cancers with a multi-analyte blood test. This is a perfect practical example for applying Bayes rule! And most of the information we need is right there in the abstract: " The sensitivities ranged from 69% to 98% for the detection of five cancer types (ovary, liver, stomach, pancreas, and esophagus)... " and " The ...
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